My plan

Ok, no matter what, the next six months are the hard market, so I might as well work hard with Willig and see where it gets me. Since John, Shannon, and Mike have all identified pretty much the same issues, here's my plan:
From now until March, try to get 6 "lessons" a month - two from Shannon; two from Mike; and two rides from Mike with mini-lessons at the end.
I'll work really hard during this time on the consistent message from all three - riding Willig forward and with impulsion, using my new and increasing tools on dealing with his mental issue, and if necessary, sending him back to John for a bit. We'll see how this week goes by myself - if I immediately lose the progress John just made, I'll send him back down and go down there for lessons for a month, but if I can keep it up working with Mike and Shannon, I'll hold off on more training until spring.
Then from March - August (or so), I'd like to take him to those local dressage shows, keep up my "6" lessons and add 2-4 more - with John weekly or every other week. I'll have to cut my hours at work for that, but if I don't have a heavy litigation load, I think I could handle one afternoon off a week, and hopefully trailerpool. I'll also try taking him at (huge sigh) Hopeful, just riding him around on the show grounds and schooling, and then maybe, hopefully, we could also ride Beginner Novice at unrecognized stuff if he's showing some good improvement.
Here are the big factors:
- If we move back to Seattle, even if I am working down here four days a week, I seriously doubt I can make the time commitment to really work him consistently the way he needs it. That would probably lead to his sale and me getting an easier, more reliable horse.
- If my work goes up considerably, which I suspect it will over the next few years, same as above. If I'm working 60-70 hours a week, he's going to get the short end of my time stick, and I think he works more consistently on the upper end when he is getting worked more consistently from me. (Although he never acts hot, he seems to have more trouble focusing.)
- If at the six month point or one year point we haven't made much progress, even with a lot of training aid, I'm willing to admit that I'm just not an advanced enough rider. One alternative is to send him for intensive training, but more likely he'll just need a better rider. It would be nice, though, to improve, although I have NEVER, ever wanted a project.
- I weighed this with what if I had infinite money and infinite time? Yes, I'd like to improve and I'd like to be able to ride more types of horses. Do I think I'm that good? No. But with trainers helping me, there's a lot for me to learn. Alternatively, if I knew I was only going to ride 10 more years, then we'd move back to Seattle and I'd have to give it up? Then I don't really want to spend my last 10 years riding on him. I want to be on a horse that's fun. But 10 years from now? I'm probably going to be too old to have a horse who bucks me off. I better get good now, while I still bounce a little bit.
- John also pointed out, when I asked what if it was 10 years of him being inconsistent and needing work, and then 5 good years - and John said, no more like 1. I'm going to assume the 1 replaced the 10, not the 5. :)
So that's the sort of stuff I'm thinking about. I'm not overmounted, but Willig is not an easy horse, by any stretch of the imagination. He's not a pleasure horse, and he's probably never going to be one. But John also agreed, when he has a good day, he is a pleasure to ride.
The most ominous sign, I think, is the lack of "heart" towards the fences. He's just not a jumper by nature, and he doesn't make the effort to clear them. This might not ever matter for novice, the highest I think I would ever take Willig (and the road to novice seems very, very long from here).